We have this data from elsewhere, as I previously saidbeew wrote:We don’t test enough. There are far more people with this than the official figures (hence my 50000 figure) if you suffer the symptoms now and call 111 they tell you to stay at home and take paracetamol and fluid (my colleague did this yesterday). Only when you enter a hospital do they confirm you have it.BeesKnees wrote:It really isn't.beew wrote: The death rate is far less than 0.07%, as things stand.
As explained you are looking at the death rate from those who has caught it up to the same time as them. You cannot include those infected in the past two weeks as you don't know if they will live or die yet.
We need to test more to get the data on recovery, which would give us a better idea on probable mortality rates. Maybe Antony or Foxy can give us an insight into why we’re not testing more people, who have the classic symptoms.
"What you have to do is know the number of cases 18 days ago when they most likely caught it. This maths has been done as the numbers double every 4-5 days, meaning the number infected was eight times lower than today. Assuming we currently have 60,000 infected then 18 days ago the number was 7,500 which makes the death rate just under 1%.
What statisticians have actually done is turn this on it's head, while numbers are growing exponentially then you get a good idea of the number infected by multiplying the number of deaths by 800. Meaning our government current think there are around 56,000 infected."
The testing is needed to track and prevent infection being transmitted so you can reduce spread. We have chosen to just let it loose and if the governments figures are right then between 40,000 and 120,000 will die because we chose not to track it.
